Canadian all wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 are seen swelling to a more than one decade high after farmers harvested a much larger crop than previously expected.
Monthly supply-demand estimates released by Agriculture Canada on Wednesday pegged national all wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year at 7.5 million tonnes, up a hefty 2.4 million from the government’s November projection and more than 82% above 4.112 million a year earlier. If accurate, it would be the largest all wheat ending stocks level since the 2013-14 crop year at just under 10.4 million.
The increase in the ending stocks estimate from last month reflects Statistics Canada’s Dec. 4 crop production report which raised the federal agency’s all wheat production estimate to a new high of 39.955 million tonnes, up from the September model-based projection of 36.624 million and 11.2% above the previous year.
With the bigger crop, the total 2025-26 all wheat supply is now estimated at 44.172 million tonnes, up from 40.841 million in November and 41.302 million in 2024-25.
Meanwhile, increases on the demand side fell well short of offsetting the larger supply. Ag Canada raised its 2025-26 all wheat export forecast to 28.35 million tonnes, up from from 27.7 million last month but still below the previous year’s 29.22 million. Domestic use, at 8.322 million tonnes, increased marginally from 8.041 million in November and 7.969 million a year earlier.
With production rising to 7.135 million tonnes from the earlier estimate of 6.535 million tonnes, durum ending stocks for 2025-26 are pegged this month at seven-year high of 1.5 million tonnes, up 400,000 from November and just 496,000 in 2024-25.
Durum exports were raised 150,000 tonnes from last month to 5.35 million, below 5.821 million last year, while domestic use was revised modestly higher to 786,000.
Wheat (excl durum) ending stocks were raised 2 million tonnes from last month to 6 million, potentially the highest since 2014-15. Exports were revised 500,000 tonnes higher from last month to 23 million, still about 400,000 below a year earlier, while projected domestic use ticked up to 7.536 million tonnes from 7.305 million in November.
At $280/tonne, the average expected 2025-26 durum price was steady from last month and down from $321 in 2024-25. The forecasted wheat (excl durum) price was unchanged from last month as well, holding at $265/tonne, versus $282 a year ago.
